Wal-Mart has made it very clear that the prospects for this holiday are much stronger than the conventional wisdom would have had it.

Consumers were not in the holiday spirit up until the last week of the holiday season, when there was a mad rush for the store. And the big unknown is the result of that game of chicken, where shoppers waited until the last minute to get the best bargains and retailers held off.

On its own, a comp-store inventory increase of 2-to-5 percent is no big deal. But when you've got comp-store sales declines of closer to 10 percent, you're dealing with a possible 10-point spread, which we believe is going to cause retailers to push the promotional panic button earlier than they would have.

We knew today was going to be a disaster. What surprises us was how bad it was was.

They're trying to create the perception on Wall Street that inventories are in great shape, but how much of that is true sales of merchandise and how much is just accounting?

Given the severity of the storm, we expect that stores in the affected areas could lose up to two days of sales as roads were nearly impossible to navigate.