We are still very cautious on leisure and airline stocks. For British Airways the transatlantic route represents about 40 percent of revenue, they still have more room to fall but Lufthansa has made good progress in cutting costs.

They are reducing capacity, so that could be good news for some European companies and pretty much in line with our models.

Friends Reunited have got a very strong brand, they've got a huge database and they've managed to make money, which is a conjuring act most of the internet operations we saw during 2000 weren't able to do. Friends Reunited has stood the test of time.

The next move now I think is to the upside.

When you get to this level of wealth, business becomes a game or a challenge,

We could have a Gulf War scenario, and that's going to drive the markets lower, I'm afraid.