We don't change our personal consumption forecasts around [the Michigan sentiment index]. But it's a good sign -- I think the consumer will trudge along here, even if they are saddled with high debts.

You can't think about things you want to change. Just be yourself.

Payrolls were well below the whisper number, so there's been a big sigh of relief in the market,

Now you are entering a much more uncertain period.

In the big oil shocks that really damaged the economy, the tax on the consumer was many times more than that, but that alone wasn't enough. You also had to have people worrying that prices were going higher forever.

The consumer is already somewhat vulnerable in the year ahead as the tax-cut effects fade. If we continue to see pressure from energy prices, consumer spending is almost sure to slow down some.