We raise the prospect here that New Zealand has already fallen into a recession.

When they do return, there is the positive effect of training and ideas and so forth.

The results of this QSBO survey suggest the economy is presently in the throes of a potential acute slowdown.

With the Reserve Bank raising interest rates and the currency being high for some time, the pressure is eating into them and their confidence.

Migration has slowed appreciably since 2003 and the residential construction market has caught up with the backlog; so the volume of house construction will return over the next eighteen months or so to levels close to those experienced before the migration surge hit.

But people also form expectations in other ways - from their order book and information in the marketplace and the media.