We think inflation in the middle of this year will be back below target. We are likely to see 5 percent base rates by the middle of the year.

The Fed will want several months to confirm that inflation risks have shifted lower and there are subtle phrases that suggest they're not really believers. Take core [personal consumption expenditure inflation] down to 1.5% and they'll sing a louder tune.

Europe has double-digit unemployment and no inflation problem, ... Any European Central Bank tightening will be swamped by much more from the Fed.

This is great news on the inflation front. It will be very difficult for the economy to generate any sustained rise in core inflation with unit labor costs showing such a high degree of restraint.

It's like that dinner date that you make for six months in advance. You think it will never happen. And then it's here.

Not only is she none of those, but she is a renowned nanny with stellar references. It does not get much worse than this without a physical injury.