We're going to have to face the fact that there are strong centrifugal forces in Iraq that have the potential of tearing the country apart.

Iraq has a lot of potential, but lots of things have to go right. We see no sign of that happening.

There was a real sense of solidarity among the neighboring states, a desire to see this work and send a signal to all the Afghan factions that they were no longer to receive assistance if they did not adopt this accord.

Voters are not looking for creative, forward-looking candidates, they are looking for people who they think can protect them. They fall back on the familiar and the powerful. The same thing happened in postwar Bosnia, where the parties that fed the conflict in the first place got most of the vote.

The main requirement is negotiation within parties -- which won't be too hard -- about who should occupy the most senior positions. But then among parties, about how those positions should be distributed,

I anticipate that at least lead elements of it will be here,