We're heading into a high demand period, even though we have ample supplies, we're not exactly over-supplied.

We've gone away from worrying about supply and are concerned that demand may be stronger than anticipated if we get an early winter and stay cold through March.

We've been in a chronic situation here where supplies have not really caught up with demand.

Even though the overall number looked good, a lot of the supply was on the West Coast.

You have all the elements to push the price up: high demand, tight supplies, tight refining capacity, interruptions in supplies, geopolitical tensions, Iran, Nigeria, etc.. The upside is bigger than the downside, so the money is piling in.

Who knows when and exactly what the catalyst is going to be. End demand is not as strong as what some of the components of the technology stock market would suggest. With valuations where they are right now, there is some near downside risk. But unlike where we were last year where we fell off a cliff, we might fall off a curve.