When we are going at 4 percent, it's difficult to fall all the way back to contraction. But we could definitely end up having slower growth.

OPEC became powerless the moment it sold its last barrel of excess capacity, and that was maybe a year ago.

They're saying that right now. The sentiment might change with military action.

There (would) be demonstrations in (Iranian) streets calling for the government to cut off oil exports.

Iran is the only major oil-producing country that still has a budget deficit. History tells us since the Iranian revolution, they always talk about cutting production, but they've never cut it.

If we look at Hurricane Ivan (which hit the Gulf in 2004), oil prices continued to go up for more than a month. Companies continued to work on their facilities but there were always delays restoring production.