When we look back a year from now I think we'll recognize the summer of 2005 as the peak of the housing boom.

This locks in strong odds of a January move. March is still a toss-up. I think the Fed in its own admission is in the neutral zone.

We can't extrapolate national trends from Manhattan markets.

There's already been a considerable softening in housing demand which preceded the recent rise in mortgage rates. Which leads me to believe that the weakness at a minimum will continue, and may likely accelerate.

This is a return to normalcy, and that is especially good after what seemed like a much more serious event for the economy just a month or two ago.

The credit markets have been very useful guides to industry prospects. Whatever reassuring signals they are sending shouldn't be ignored.