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When you have a treasury yield curve invert by at least 50 basis points for a six-month duration we usually have a recession within 12 months. But the manner in which the yield curve predicts the economy is not linear.


John Lonski

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At the same time, the yield curve is flat and actually has the potential to invert. An inverted yiel...
HARVEY ROSENBLUM Clients and investors inevitably say that a yield curve inversion spells a recession, but looking at...
MALCOLM WOOD If nothing else, a flat-to-inverted Treasury yield curve is the financial market's way of telling po...
JOHN LONSKI I never liked quantitative easing. It's misunderstood by almost everybody. Flattening the yield ...
KENNETH FISHER I think at this point in time that the inverted yield curve is not signaling a slowdown.
BEN BERNANKE The yield curve is a really powerful indicator. It always has been. The shape of the curve still mat...
CHRISTOPHER LOW The yield curve is flat and typically when that happens, banks are reluctant to lend money and the e...
MICHAEL CHEAH It's much better than expected on the margins front and treasury staged a rebound despite a flat yie...
ISMAEL PILI The whole game now is just playing the yield curve.
DAVID HENDLER There's not a big inflation problem. Under those circumstances, you get a benign yield-curve inversi...
LINCOLN ANDERSON For those not very loaned up, a flattening yield curve could start crunching their margins.
ALAN ROWE The answer isn't more time but a greater awareness of the time we have.
CRAIG GROESCHEL The shorter end of the U.S. yield curve is holding a fairly nice firm tone.
MICHAEL BOSS For 110 basis points, we believe it's not worth getting into high yield. On average, you're sliding ...
DILIP PARAMESWARAN It was unanimous we'd have a year-end rally until the yield curve inverted. We wanted to close the m...
BARRY HYMAN There's a disconnect between buyers and sellers. Sellers tend to be about at least six months behind...
JONATHAN MILLER The spread curve is compressed enough -- you're talking about five basis points difference in the ov...
JAMIE JACKSON The trend of the flattening of the yield curve will continue. The short- end yield is going up becau...
MARTIN BRUNI It's a good move. It flattens the yield curve and brings long-term rates down.
BILL HORNBARGER As a forecasting rule of thumb, the yield curve has been pretty good — but it may not be a good rul...
DORSEY FARR The inverted yield curve, which sent the stock market reeling yesterday, made gold one of the few sa...
GEORGE GERO A flattening yield curve typically is indicative of the bond market's view that the Fed as being les...
CARLOS BORROMEO Operating with a flat yield-curve environment is tough on every bank, but Wells is positioned well c...
FRED CANNON The five-year notes became cheaper against the 10-year bonds on the yield curve.
AKIHIKO INOUE It's not going to be a six-month situation. We have to prepare for the duration.
AL GREEN Over the past 12 month we have made a series of strategic decisions that have affected short term re...
LOU GERSTNER The market is not focused on imbalances, but rather interest rates and in the US right now they are ...
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LARRY SNOW Asset liability matching demand from pension funds will support the longer end and assuming the ECB ...
KORNELIUS PURPS People make too much out of whether we're inverted or not. It's as if when we're positive by a coupl...
JAMIE JACKSON There is this simplistic notion around that because the yield curve is inverted, therefore, economic...
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IAN MARKHAM This is not going to be enough - we're still looking for another 50 basis points by the end of the y...
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LAUREN MYRACLE It's been foreigners looking for yield that has driven the U.S. curve to flatten. The market will in...
CHRIS TURNER Historically a flat or inverted yield curve is bad news for the market but I don't think that is the...
BRIAN STINE The long end of the curve is very cheap. We are maintaining our long duration position in Treasuries...
AKIRA TAKEI We have at least a month to six weeks to go.
JANE GALLENBACH The market reacted exactly the way they wanted it to, which was to flatten the yield curve. I think ...
LARA RHAME While this group is still a few years away from retirement, this plus the fact that Americans are li...
KEVIN GIDDIS A hawkish tone is already priced into the markets, both in the yield curve and on the currency. It w...
JACK SPITZ The yield curve has narrowed. Some money market funds are now yielding more than 4%. At that rate, t...
GARY SCHLOSSBERG The economy hit a brick wall in February and March. The risk of a recession is higher now than I tho...
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BRAD SETSER We're expecting it to remain pretty downbeat for at least the next 12 months. We don't expect a fund...
GREG CLARKE Efficiency innovations provide return on investment in 12-18 months. Empowering innovations take 5-1...
CLAYTON CHRISTENSEN Usually the poorer yield zones are hill tops, but can be low areas that drown out. We have had times...
STEVE WIK At six and nine months of age it didn't seem to have an effect, but by 12 months of age, when most c...
LIZANNE MULLIGAN You deserve to be with somebody, who knows you're the one, from that very first moment he lays eyes ...
C. JOYBELL C. They're going to be borrowing more money at the shorter part of the yield curve. Is that going to pu...
BILL HORNBARGER There's not a lot of investment opportunities out there, so yield is still the default play for the ...
CAMERON BAGRIE If we tend to the things that are important in life, if we are right with those we love, and behave ...
MITCH ALBOM A 50 basis point rise would be good for the economy, but not the stock market.
BRIAN BENSCH The ECB has signaled that if there was any risk inflation expectations would run away, they would co...
KORNELIUS PURPS We are expecting to see some correction in the housing market after previously robust data. That wil...
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JAMES GRADY The U.S. Treasury market will outperform their European counterparts. The yield spread is making Tre...
AKIRA TAKEI We think we have a pretty realistic absorption curve.
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JOHN VARVATOS Get off your horse and drink your milk.
JOHN WAYNE The ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world are the ones who do.
JOHN MCAFEE I can never consent to being dictated to.
JOHN TYLER There, I guess King George will be able to read that without his spectacles!
JOHN HANCOCK When you have a regime that would be happier in the afterlife than in this life, this is not a regim...
JOHN BOLTON Well, you could take several stories off the buildings of most U.S. government agencies and we'd...
JOHN BOLTON You don't need to spend tens of millions of dollars on political consultants to tell you what yo...
JOHN BOLTON Diplomacy is not an end in itself if it does not advance U.S. interests.
JOHN BOLTON Just as the Security Council was largely irrelevant to the great struggle of the last half of the tw...
JOHN BOLTON I'm a conservative Republican. I have been since I was 15 years old and participated in the '...
JOHN BOLTON People say you favor assassination, what do you think war is? Except that it's assassination on ...
JOHN BOLTON There's no religious test under the constitution. That's what it says. Period.
JOHN BOLTON North Korea is going to get away with keeping its nuclear weapons.
JOHN BOLTON I think that, especially among conservatives, there's a clear understanding that there are three...
JOHN BOLTON A lot of people have said to me, 'That's a great idea, running for president. You'll get...
JOHN BOLTON