With oil at this price level, we can definitely expect a cut in output. OPEC was only barred from doing so previously because of higher prices.

Nigeria isn't enough to continue to push crude oil prices higher due to current ample supplies in the U.S.. Gasoline inventories remain above the upper end of the five-year range since early February.

Given the intensity and the path of Katrina, damage to oil infrastructures in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to be more serious than Ivan. With current production losses, the gasoline market will continue to be tight in the short run as summer driving season comes to an end.

The IEA release is obviously a bearish factor, a large portion of which consists of crude oil. Given the capacity constraints, the effect of additional barrels of crude oil seems limited and the amount of gasoline will be insufficient to ease current supply tightness.

Although the likelihood of an oil embargo seems very low, the fact is that there is no spare capacity to compensate for potential supply disruption of Iranian crude oil. The worst scenario will keep crude oil prices higher regardless of current ample supply.

Given the capacity constraints, the effect of additional barrels of crude oil seems limited and the amount of gasoline will be insufficient to ease current supply tightness.