You will not see a firefighter holding my sign. You will not see my signs on a firefighter's lawn,

There will be an upside surprise in inflation, and we still think the Fed has still got some work to do. There's room for yields to rise.

It's going to be a patchy acceleration in Europe, but we're looking for something a little firmer.

The Treasury has two options -- either to change the regulations or to issue more long-dated debt, and selling more is the only fix we're going to get in the short term.

If we get evidence of inflation pushing up beyond the levels we've seen already, then it's game on for an ECB rate hike in December. We would give it about a 35 percent chance at the moment but that could increase quickly should we get surprises in the next inflation reports.

We've always been saying that yields are too low at the front-end of the curve. I do think yields should gently drift higher.