As rebuilding efforts take hold and job growth gains momentum, consumers' confidence should rebound and return to more positive levels by year-end or early 2006.

Historically, shocks have had a short-term impact on consumer confidence, especially on consumers' expectations. Fuel prices remain high, though they have retreated in recent days, and when combined with a weaker job market outlook, will likely curb both confidence and spending for the short run.

While the economy has not turned around yet, the worst may well be over. The upturn in confidence is being driven by growing confidence about the business outlook and job prospects. Consumer expectations for the future are now higher than they have been in more than a year.

Much of the decline in confidence over the past two months can be attributed to the recent hurricanes, (gas) pump shock and a weakening labor market.

Much of the improvement in confidence can be attributed to the resiliency of the economy post-Katrina and the recent declines in fuel prices.

The stars would have to align for this to be positive. It's certainly tough for the markets.