While the economy has not turned around yet, the worst may well be over. The upturn in confidence is being driven by growing confidence about the business outlook and job prospects. Consumer expectations for the future are now higher than they have been in more than a year.

Much of the improvement in confidence can be attributed to the resiliency of the economy post-Katrina and the recent declines in fuel prices.

Historically, shocks have had a short-term impact on consumer confidence, especially on consumers' expectations. Fuel prices remain high, though they have retreated in recent days, and when combined with a weaker job market outlook, will likely curb both confidence and spending for the short run.

Much of the decline in confidence over the past two months can be attributed to the recent hurricanes, (gas) pump shock and a weakening labor market.

As rebuilding efforts take hold and job growth gains momentum, consumers' confidence should rebound and return to more positive levels by year-end or early 2006.

The economy is compounding saturation issues in the installed base, ... So I think until we see consumer confidence improve and the general economic situation improve, then we should not expect the upturn.