Consumer spending was really slowing down a lot in August and September. We're entering the fourth quarter on a weak note.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004.

We'll know in the fourth quarter that it's been 555 times 4.

Our results for the first quarter confirm that discretionary consumer spending is softening in New Zealand and Australia.

Then all of a sudden, in the fourth quarter the other team's back in it.