The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004.

While the fourth quarter GDP data and the relatively healthy mix of the components further diminishes the chances of a near-term trimming of interest rates, we still believe a 25 basis point interest rate cut is very possible in May.

Consumer spending was really slowing down a lot in August and September. We're entering the fourth quarter on a weak note.

Although we expect consumer spending to slow sharply in the fourth quarter, to below 2 percent, as a result of lower auto sales, we expect that GDP will still edge back above 4 percent on an inventory rebound, higher business spending, and hurricane recovery spending.

Consumers have access to cash. They took out a record $804 billion in mortgage equity withdrawals in the third quarter.

We'll know in the fourth quarter that it's been 555 times 4.