For a two-term president after the November elections in the middle of your second term, things start going downhill and you really do start quacking like a duck.

There's a tendency after you win your second term to think you're invulnerable. You're not just king of the mountain, you've mastered the mountain. That can often lead to mistakes of excessive pride.

I think the president has raised the stakes for himself. He has raised the stakes for his presidency, so that if there are more explosions in the next few months ... his approval ratings will suffer some more.

We know that second terms have historically been marred by hubris and by scandal.

If people stay that long, group-think can set in, and that's dangerous for a president.

I don't think there's any other president in the modern era that has seen this kind of stability.