There's a tendency after you win your second term to think you're invulnerable. You're not just king of the mountain, you've mastered the mountain. That can often lead to mistakes of excessive pride.

For a two-term president after the November elections in the middle of your second term, things start going downhill and you really do start quacking like a duck.

We know that second terms have historically been marred by hubris and by scandal.

Win or lose, he realized that it was going to be very difficult to govern and that the better part of valor was to step aside.

I'm told by some people close to him that this will not be a Kerry-bashing speech. But he's not going to simply rally around Bush. Indeed it's going to be the story of an immigrant coming to this country and finding a country that's embraced him and a party that's embraced him.

I think the president has raised the stakes for himself. He has raised the stakes for his presidency, so that if there are more explosions in the next few months ... his approval ratings will suffer some more.