Given that nothing has been moving for many months, the fact the president and speaker actually met and agreed on key issues ... is really a step forward.

It is shaping up to be something more serious.

Because of the reduced U.N. presence on the border, any incident could be interpreted as a provocation.

What the region is looking for - and needs - is a power that guarantees stability through predictable behavior.

If they try to dominate, then we're probably going to see little brushfire rebellions breaking out in parts of Ethiopia, not at a national level, but as a voice of protest at the continuing hold on power of the EPRDF.

It is the most inclusive institution in the government and the one that enjoys the greatest legitimacy.