It's only political factors that are now holding prices above $60. Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela are potentially affecting supply flow that is driving the rally and is still providing support.

This is really much more important than OPEC supply as their spare capacity is largely heavy and sour and the real shortage is capacity to upgrade such fuels anyway,

This is really much more important than OPEC supply as their spare capacity is largely heavy and sour and the real shortage is capacity to upgrade such fuels anyway.

Concern about supply means the risk premium in prices is on the rise. Iran is the major problem, but Nigeria coming on top makes matters worse.

Copper is often perceived to be the barometer for market conditions and therefore a significant fall in copper prices could remove speculative support from other metals.

There's not much you can do about (the prices). It's a political matter. Of course, supply and demand comes into it, but I don't think the war in Iraq or (Hurricane) Katrina has any particular effect on it.