Our downgrade is based on the company's preannouncement for contract revenue of $1.25 bilion-$1.3 billion. Our estimate was $1.65 billion.

Our estimate for fourth quarter product revenue is approximately $1 billion. To achieve our estimate, we believe Amazon has to book about $750 million in the eight week holiday season. Our back-of-the-envelope analysis of the Delight-O-Meter suggests it is off to a solid start.

We also know that our revenue stream is probably going to have a $750 million to perhaps $1 billion deficit because the southeast region produced an extraordinary amount of our revenue stream and that is in hard state dollars,

We think the $9.5 billion number implies a net revenue number of about $6.5 billion, which is roughly in line with current consensus estimates.

It suggests the trend has changed, because each week's estimate is based on the trends. This is clearly an important change, when taken with other news, particularly monthly payroll statistics. It suggests more good news is on the way.

This is the first record contract I've had that was based strictly on me, on my live show. They just saw me as somebody who did a good show, and then they didn't inhibit me in choosing the songs.