We think the $9.5 billion number implies a net revenue number of about $6.5 billion, which is roughly in line with current consensus estimates.

We think they succeeded in two key objectives. One, setting a very positive tone that almost immediately reversed the negative post-fourth-quarter sentiment. Second, quite forcefully correcting and dispelling concerns over George Reyes' comments on growth and monetization from earlier in the week.

While there have been headline-grabbing absolute moves over the past few weeks, the stock is only giving back gains from the start of the year.

This new signal is roughly 100 times weaker than the signal we analyzed three years ago and about a billion times less than the radiant warmth we feel from the sun.

Our downgrade is based on the company's preannouncement for contract revenue of $1.25 bilion-$1.3 billion. Our estimate was $1.65 billion.

We also know that our revenue stream is probably going to have a $750 million to perhaps $1 billion deficit because the southeast region produced an extraordinary amount of our revenue stream and that is in hard state dollars,