The data indicate that firms continue to struggle to pass higher costs through to consumers, with profit margins being squeezed as a result.

Following the accident, there's downside risks to exports in January, so the trade deficit may be wider than we expect.

Rising business investment may have boosted demand for imported goods and stalled a further improvement in the trade deficit in January. We still are upbeat on exports, with commodity prices rising and strong global demand.

Wages aren't at a level that's going to prompt the central bank to raise interest rates. We forecast the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.

The survey has provided a relatively good one-quarter lead on annual US GDP growth over the past 15 or so years - the correlation is 0.69.

Housing finance has bottomed out at a relatively high level after losing some altitude in the wake the central bank rate rise in early 2005.