The upside for bonds will be heavy. Unless there is a sudden slowdown in overseas economies, Japan's economy will probably extend its recovery.

Bonds will find it hard to rise today. The fundamental trend that the economy is recovering has not changed.

Support from a lack of new supply will be short-lived.

The report will probably prompt investors to imagine the era of low rates is going change soon.

The dollar will probably stay strong, as the U.S. economy is holding up.

Strong economic figures will confirm the Japanese economy is doing better, reinforcing expectations of an end to the zero- interest-rate policy as early as the fourth quarter. That's yen positive for sure.